Thursday, June 12, 2014

A year's worth of measles cases in a week - calling it!

The CDC has just reported the measles cases for 2014 to date: 402 (that is four hundred and two) and 65 cases more than last week. The entire year 2010 only saw 63 cases and in fact, the median number between 2000 and 2010 was 60 per year. How can that be?! Very simple: Every year, measles are imported into the US from abroad. If they are imported into communities with low vaccination coverage, they will spread - usually not very far. Just that this time, measles got imported into a much larger pocket of low vaccination coverage - the Ohio population of Amish. And although these are now vaccinating, there are enough non-immune people around to sustain the outbreak, sustain it big time (I am sure we'll hear a luke warm "that's not an outbreak" from Bob Sears at some point though).

image credit nbcnews

In any case - with 402 cases, the time has come to call it - the last really big outbreak of measles in the US was in 1989 to 1991. Around 55000 people got sick, at least 123 died acutely for a mortality rate of 1 reported death in 451 reported cases. We know that there have been at least 11 SSPE cases due to that outbreak, so the death rate is more like 1 reported death in 414 reported cases. We will reach at least one of these numbers next week. That doesn't mean that someone is going to die next week, statistics don't quite work that way. However, it is, at this point, more likely than not that we'll see a death before the end this year.

I am going to call something else: one someone dies, the anti-vax are going to find something "defective" about the victim, and if it isn't something obvious (like the measles victim in Wales, who reportedly was an underweight adult with a past alcohol problem, so "clearly" not like the vaccine refusers' little snowflakes), they are going to make something up (wrong diet, blabla). No number of deaths will be "enough" for them - sad!

Now is as good a time as ever to check your children's and your own immunization records - 2xMMR is extremely effective in preventing measles and saving lives! Just do it.


52 comments:

  1. Dr. Bob Sears only whines when a vaccine-preventable disease is in his own backyard of Orange County. His whining is not over any concern measles (which he incorrectly dismisses as a trivial disease), but rather the inconvenience a measles outbreak causes him when he has to get off his anti-vaccine arse and actually vaccinate some of his patients, if only because his patients' parents demanded it (http://www.forbes.com/sites/emilywillingham/2014/03/23/worried-about-measles-dont-call-dr-bob-sears/). Such a rough life for poor dogturd bob.

    Also, (and I haven't been able to get an actual copy of the paper, but Ren gives a nice summary), there was a recent mathematical analysis of why measles outbreaks in the US are lasting longer (in other words, what it would take for measles to fully return to the US--http://www.epidemiological.net/what-would-it-take-for-measles-to-not-be-eliminated-in-the-united-states/). Vaccine rates in the US have fallen far enough that we are not far from this happening--as you show above in your discussion of the rising number of measles outbreaks in the US.

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    1. I'll email you the study - it may give the authors the chance to say "we called it". I wonder whether Bob would change his mind if he actually cared for hundreds of measles cases. Before he wrote his book, he had not seen any measles, ever. He has since seen one (I am guessing the San Diego index case). What if he could not see straight for measles cases for a month or three? My guess is, he'd be too lazy to actually take care and visit his patients (I must go to the way back machine and find where he reacts to my question to whether he does home visits with a "does not compute").

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    2. I have found an online review of Sears on Yelp where the reviewer noted they paid $170 per visit cash to Dr Bob. That's about two and a half times what an average pediatrician visit gets paid when a pediatrician takes insurance. No wonder house calls don't compute.

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    3. He used to have his prices online and they ranged form $75 to 200 per vaccine visit

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    4. Hmm, I wonder what they are now. Curiosity a curious thing.

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  2. Catherina, I hope you are wrong. I fear that you are right, that we will see at least one death from measles or measles complications before the year is out, but I hope you are wrong.

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  3. Catherina, I'm going to predict that next week's MMWR from the CDC will show that we will have had more cases of measles in under 6 months than the last three years combined. And that by the end of August we will have had more cases than the last five years combined.

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  4. Nice breakdown of the County-by-County 314 confirmed measles cases in Ohio, as of June 12, 2014, from the Ohio Department of Health:

    http://www.odh.ohio.gov/features/odhfeatures/Measles%202014.aspx

    "The case with the earliest onset of symptoms began on 3/24/2014. The case with the most recent onset of symptoms began on 06/06/2014.

    The cases range from under six months to 53 years. Of these cases, 145 cases are female and 169 cases are male. There have been some hospitalizations reported; most have recovered on their own."

    (To date, seven of the cases have been hospitalized)

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    1. thanks for the link - seven is not a lot - that is good!

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  5. Now KC, MO has 15 confirmed cases of measles and Missouri is a state that has not even had an increase in pertussis cases. This is just getting out of hand.

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    1. as us Cassandras have been saying all along... did you know that when a disease clocks more than 1000 cases/year regularly, it moves from table 1 to table 2 in the MMWR? Happened to mumps. I don't think measles is going to be next...hopefully.

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  6. We are so happy that the 402 children who got the measles will not be disabled by autism. And I would like to personally thank this website for steering more people to the anti-vaccine movement. Sciencemom was recently attacking someone but what she didnt realize was that person was big money..Thank you and keep sending them our way. It's a beautiful billionaire day!

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    1. Actually you are wrong. There may those who get encephalitis who will be permanently neurotically damaged. And what about the the numbers who have been hospitalized: " Forty-three (15%) were hospitalized, and complications have included pneumonia (five patients), hepatitis (one), pancytopenia (one), and thrombocytopenia (one). No cases of encephalitis and no deaths have been reported." Do you think that hospital care is cheap?

      And what evidence do you have that the MMR vaccine causes autism? It has been used in the USA since 1971, so if it did cause autism it would have been known before 1990, long before Wakefield did his little fraudulent case series. Where is that data from before 1990?

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    2. @Anon - what a sicko....really? Celebrating disease? I'd love to see your face when you finally hear that someone dies from these recent Measles outbreaks....only a matter of time before it happens.

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    3. They are celebrating because they just landed one of the richest women around to support their cause. And it's all thanks to those idiot morons over at respectful insolence. Science mom,lilady and a few others were attacking her and if they had half a brain cell they would have known who she was. In the state where she lives MMR vaccine rates have dropped off the cliff in less than a month. And that is not a coincidence.

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    4. LOL - yeah, I bet.....how naming names?

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    5. "They are celebrating because they just landed one of the richest women around to support their cause. ..... In the state where she lives MMR vaccine rates have dropped off the cliff in less than a month. "

      Well, perhaps that state should make sure that all of the hospital bills for treating kids with measles should be sent to this rich woman.

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    6. ""They are celebrating because they just landed one of the richest women around to support their cause. ..... In the state where she lives MMR vaccine rates have dropped off the cliff in less than a month."

      Oh? Scary stuff from a poster who is anonymous.

      Just keep posting your inane comments "anonymous", so I can figure out whose sock puppet you are.

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    7. We are so happy that the 402 children who got the measles will not be disabled by autism.

      And you know this how? First, most of those infected are past the age of having an autism diagnosis anyway so no-brainer there and the toddlers infected with measles not only are too young for a diagnosis but get to enjoy the possibility of measles encephalitis or SSPE some years from now. Sure, really something to celebrate Anonymous.

      They are celebrating because they just landed one of the richest women around to support their cause. And it's all thanks to those idiot morons over at respectful insolence.

      Right because wealthy matrons participate on blogs and are swayed by comments...happens all the time right? I guess if you are going for delusions, think big Anonymous.

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  7. " In the state where she (one of the richest women around) lives, MMR vaccine rates have dropped off the cliff in less than a month. And that is not a coincidence."

    Which State would that be, anonymous?

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  8. Meanwhile in Europe, 10x as many measles cases and some people still don't vaccinate (although, thankfully, most do)
    http://www.vaccinestoday.eu/vaccines/europe-has-100-times-more-measles-cases-than-us/

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  9. Hello ladies of the VAX! I would just like to comment here and support the anon already responding here. Millions of people around the world are joining the fight here to AVOID vaccines at all costs! Here is an excerpt from an excellent response to the idea of taking our personal exemptions away. My unvaccinated son is 2.5 now, with sick vaccinated kids all around him. From neurological disorders, to learning disabilities to countless ear infections - the list goes on! It makes me so sad that people are bullied into thinking they must get vaccinated. It is a complete JOKE!

    Vaccines have not been proven safe. They are not effective. They have not eradicated any diseases. They cause illness including the ones they are designed to prevent. They cause viruses to mutate and strains of what were simple childhood diseases to become more virulent. Vaccines assault the immune system, contain additives that are deemed harmful and toxic by the EPA and FDA, and are responsible for the most recent outbreaks of pertussis, measles, mumps, and meningitis. The CDC’s response to their failed vaccine? Get more boosters because somehow getting more of something that didn’t work in the first place is logical.
    My decision to “unvaccinate” my child in no way affects your children or anyone else’s children. If anything we should protect the people who cannot be vaccinated from children who are, since many of the vaccines cause virus shedding for six weeks or more. In addition, my unvaccinated child does not put anyone else’s vaccinated child at risk. If their child is vaccinated then shouldn’t they be protected?
    And finally, please tell me how my child, who has never has measles, whooping cough, (or any other sickness for that matter) is responsible for the recent outbreaks of these diseases – in the almost exclusively vaccinated population no less. Blaming an unvaccinated child for the spread of a disease they’ve never had on a population that is almost entirely vaccinated is like you blaming a random person’s cat in Oklahoma for the grey hair you found on your head. Exactly. It’s ridiculous at best.

    http://www.livingwhole.org/a-parents-response-to-the-new-york-times-article-eliminate-vaccine-exemptions/

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    1. Well, except that everything you just wrote is demonstrably false - filled with lies, misinterpretations and misrepresentations....you should be ashamed of yourself....

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    2. Hi Cowardly Anon anti-vaccine freak.
      I guess you are anon because (1) you lie, (2) you don't want anyone to know you lie and (3) if vaccine preventable diseases keep increasing like they are in the US, you would be in for a giant arse whooping by the general public when they realize you are the cause of these outbreaks through your lies. I guess if I was a cowardly coward liar who lies all the time, I'd probably keep my name hidden too.

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  10. The emerging generation of unvaccinated children will be among the healthiest in the world, and they’ll have their parents to thank. The refusal of significant numbers of parents to vaccinate their children has created a sizable population numbering in the millions around the world and has raised a number of important public health issues, namely why do we continue to vaccinate at all.

    Unvaccinated children will never have dangerous, immune suppressing, carcinogenic, neurotoxic and infertility promoting chemicals pumped into their bodies. These include those chemicals that are found in almost every FDA approved vaccine.

    http://therefusers.com/refusers-newsroom/the-healthiest-children-in-the-future-will-be-unvaccinated-by-dave-mihalovic-naturopathic-doctor/

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  11. Herd immunity does not exists when it comes to vaccines.
    Herd immunity is this concept that a certain percentage of the population needs to be vaccinated in order to eradicate a disease. Herd immunity does not exist with vaccines and here’s why:

    Herd immunity only applies to those diseases that are naturally derived that confer lifetime immunity. Vaccine manufactures promise to introduce an antigen. They do not promise that the antigen will initiate an antibody response (e.g. MMR vaccine insert). Even if there is an antibody response the doesn’t mean one will have immunity and if they do, immunity is temporary (up to 4-10 years). Chicken pox vaccine gives immunity for “unknown duration” but no more than 10 years, MMR is unknown, Pertussis “protection” is a joke, Hep B is a maximum of seven.

    So my child could get the simple childhood chicken pox as a child and have lifetime protection, or she could get vaccinated, get sick anyway (by chicken pox or one of the many other diseases associated with the vaccine), have only temporary (if any) immunity, and increase her chances by 50% of getting shingles as an adult?

    But wait, I should be happy that my infant is at least getting some protection from the mean hepatitis B that is transmitted via sex and dirty needles. I was really worried about that one. Good thing she’ll get another booster when she starts school to prevent that risky kindergarten behavior.

    This is certainly worth reading in its entirety ....

    http://www.livingwhole.org/a-parents-response-to-the-new-york-times-article-eliminate-vaccine-exemptions/

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    1. Well, given that we know that immunity for the vaccines you mentioned lasts much longer (proven easily by tests that have been done over and over again) - and the rest of your rant is equally as baseless (again, given that people can and have gotten VPDs multiple times - immunity failures happen just as often when getting the actual disease too you know)...and you still get Shingles too.

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  12. I am proud not ashamed! You should be ashamed for thinking the reverse. Who is paying you to say such things.

    What happens if you decide not to vaccinate your child?
    The story of a four-generation unvaccinated family.
    By Jennifer Z. Vaughn
    SHOULDN’T THIS FAMILY BE DEAD?

    http://therefusers.com/refusers-newsroom/what-happens-if-you-decide-not-to-vaccinate-your-child/

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    1. Actually, the only people on here who have mentioned "money" as a motive to post anything has been the "Anonymous" poster above - claiming to have landed some billionaire supporter (highly doubtful, for the reasons already mentioned).

      Being that it is so much more profitable to treat to disease than prevent it - I'll ask back to you - who is paying you to support disease outbreaks & increase the profitability of hospitals and doctors?

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    2. It's quite simple provax nut anon! My unvaccinated 2.5 year old shares a nanny with a vaccinated girl the same age. Who has been sick with a fever over 100 degrees 5 times? Who has been on antibiotics for an ear infection and strep throat twice in just the last 3 months? Who has trouble making bowel movements? It is the vaccinated child. It is so easy to see that these vaccines are making children sick! Just look around. Read up on all the problems you needle nuts are causing. My story is anecdotal and no one is paying me to keep my son healthy nor to spread the word that vaccines are bad news - full stop! No lies here, just a healthy toddler sharing a nanny with a very sick vaccinated child. Her parents are definately paying the price.

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    3. Then I match up my two, fully-vaccinated, healthy boys against your one....see, I'm one up on you.

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    4. Also, one person (or even small groups, even like my own) are no indicators of the overall health in a population - which is why we use large studies across the population to track trends and determine best outcomes...and all of those studies have shown that vaccines aren't dangerous, these children do not have worse outcomes than unvaccinated children & that the real difference is that unvaccinated children catch more infectious diseases.

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  13. United Press International newswire is the only media source to report the vaccination status of CA pertussis cases, it is for a subset of the state data.

    For the San Diego region 85% of pertussis cases were fully vaccinated. With 6 shots!

    Got that? San Diego has an epidemic of pertussis in the vaccinated and the state is still recommending a failed vaccine.

    Here is the California State Health Department recommendation on the pertussis vaccine: “We urge all pregnant women to get vaccinated,” said Dr. Ron Chapman, director of the California Department of Public Health. “We also urge parents to vaccinate infants as soon as possible.”

    Here is the San Diego pertussis vaccination failure rate according to UPI.

    ‘Of the 621 people in San Diego County diagnosed with whooping cough this year, 85 percent were up to date with their pertussis immunizations, calling into question the effectiveness of the vaccine. California is currently on track for having the most cases of the disease since 2010, and state officials declared the recent increase of cases an epidemic. San Diego County has seen 621 cases of the bacterial disease since the beginning of 2014, way up from the 430 total cases in 2013. There have been 3,458 cases this year in the entire state. Of the 621 people who’ve had the disease in San Diego County this year, 527 had the six shots necessary to be up to date with their pertussis vaccine and 67 were not. Immunization status for 27 of the ill wasn’t known.’

    Clearly, the pertussis vaccine is a failure in San Diego.

    "Just do it" Catherina..... No thanks! I shall take my health into my own brilliant hands!

    If you are still believing that vaccines actually work, check out the bottom of the crazy MMR insert where you see that this vaccine is associated with the same side-effects of the disease it’s designed to prevent:

    “Panniculitis; atypical measles; fever; syncope; headache; dizziness; malaise; irritability, vasculitis, pancreatitis; diarrhea; vomiting; parotitis; nausea, diabetes mellitus, thrombocytopenia, purpura, regional lymphadenopathy; leukocytosis, anaphylaxis and anaphylactoid reactions have been reported as well as related phenomena such as angioneurotic edema, arthritis, myalgia, athralgia, encephalitis; encephalopathy; measles inclusion body encephalitis, subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE); Guillain-BarrĂ© Syndrome (GBS); acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM); febrile convulsions; afebrile convulsions or seizures; ataxia; polyneuritis; polyneuropathy; ocular palsies; paresthesia.”

    I’m sorry, I’m vaccinating against a rash that has a less chance of causing death than you falling out your bedroom window, being struck by lightening, and drowning in a puddle, so that I can increase my child’s chance of getting one of the side-effects listed above? No thanks. I don’t gamble (especially with those odds). That’s not safe or effective.

    http://www.livingwhole.org/a-parents-response-to-the-new-york-times-article-eliminate-vaccine-exemptions/


    http://therefusers.com/refusers-newsroom/san-diego-pertussis-epidemic-in-the-fully-vaccinated-85/

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    1. Hmmm....well, the DTaP is not as effective as we'd like (the Whole Cell vaccine was better - but you anti-vax heads said it was dangerous, so it was withdrawn) but certainly better than the alternative....and Pertussis is certainly a different than say Measles or Mumps, because it is a bacteria & not a Virus (making it more difficult to create a long-lasting vaccines).

      The MMR, Polio & the various other vaccines, on the other hand, are long-lasting - current evidence points to life-time immunity (especially in the case of the MMR) in the vast majority of people who receive it.

      Lots of hand-waving by the anti-vax militia won't change the fact that the current crop of Measles outbreaks have been exclusively caused by unvaccinated individuals & that it is only a matter of time before someone does die of one of these vaccine preventable diseases that you seem to be such a big fan of.

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    2. This article is about measles. No matter how many DTaP vaccines someone gets, it will not protect against measles.

      Have you tried taking some courses on reading comprehension?

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    3. The beautiful thing about anti-vaxx rhetoric is that it's so demonstrably false and relies upon such poor and/or misunderstood sources. Anonymous, pertussis appears to be more prevalent in vaccinated populations because there are more vaccinated people and the vaccine has lower efficacy than other vaccines. However, the attack rate (you should know what that is since you're such an expert) is higher in unvaccinated, not to mention that those vaccinated and infected have attenuated disease courses. Please show the numbers how vaccinated have a higher attack rate if you can.

      Also, if herd immunity is a myth and vaccines don't work, then why do we have so few cases of measles and rubella and the majority of infected are in those unvaccinated? Numbers please, not inaccurate statements.

      My vaccinated children are the paragon of health; anecdotes are worthless.

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    4. even the life time risk of being struck by lightning is more than 6x higher (13x if you are in the United States) than that of dying of measles.

      I couldn't find the risk of drowning in a puddle - an inspired google finds few case reports, usually drunk or elderly folk - measles is deadlier than that.

      Now, children who fall out of windows have a 0.2% risk of dying. This is about equivalent to the risk of dying from measles. Since you don't worry about all this, I am sure you have a step ladder right next to your open windows, so your kids can climb up and fall at their own developmental pace.

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  14. Utilizing a bunch of anti-vax websites to "support" your arguments? Though you did avoid the Whale.to trap, though only barely....

    You certain did achieve anti-vax bingo though...pretty much mentioning every single anti-vax lie imaginable, up to and including the herd immunity thing, which I find to be so laughable given that immunity is immunity and the concept can be proven via simple mathematical expressions.

    This website - by itself, refutes your lies:

    http://antiantivax.flurf.net/

    Not to mention the decades worth of accumulated science and research on disease & vaccines we have readily available. Your idiocy is quite something to behold.

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  15. But that won’t stop pro-vaccine evangelists from blaming the California pertussis outbreak on the unvaccinated. Because they can never admit their vaccines are a flop. That would invalidate their indoctrination and life mission, to enforce the CDC vaccine schedule no matter what the data says about vaccine failure, or what the vaccine package insert shows about pertussis vaccine adverse reactions!

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    1. Except that the current outbreaks do no such thing - in fact, it is good information for us to have to both increase coverage of vaccinations and work on developing a better vaccine.

      Despite the less than stellar effectiveness of the DTaP vaccine - the fact is, unvaccinated individuals are still 23 times more likely to get infected by Pertussis than vaccinated.

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  16. I'm still waiting for "Anonymous" to back up this statement:

    "In the state where she (one of the richest women around) lives, MMR vaccine rates have dropped off the cliff in less than a month. And that is not a coincidence."

    What's the name of that "richest woman around"?

    Which State Anonymous?

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    1. Also where did the MMR vaccine rates for just a month come from? That seems like a dodgy statistic.

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  17. @lilady - and how would one know that "rates have dropped off a cliff?"

    BTW - this is Lawrence - I just haven't figured out how to create an account yet here....

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    1. You should be able to sign in using any account you have at one of the options in the dropdown.

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  18. I post under "name URL" Lawrence. I don't remember how I got "approved" to post here.

    I'm still not able to post a comment on Harpocrates Speaks, Todd W.

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  19. You don't need approval here to comment, just select whatever you want from the "Comment as" drop down menu.

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  20. Until they find a way to get rid of measles completely, people have to find ways to heal as quickly as possible.

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  21. @Rash - here is some fantastic news for you! We have the means for eliminating measles entirely - if people get vaccinated, we can get rid of these disease completely, wiping it off the face of the planet.

    So please, vaccinate!

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  22. Looks like Spam to me.

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  23. Spam up above me.

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