Showing posts with label outbreak. Show all posts
Showing posts with label outbreak. Show all posts

Monday, February 23, 2015

18 month old, unvaccinated, previously healthy toddler dies of measles in Berlin outbreak

Berlin, Germany's capital, has seen a very large measles outbreak on the past months. Since October 2014, 574 measles cases had been reported.

Today, the Berlin health senator confirmed that on 18 February 2015, an 18 month old toddler, who had not been vaccinated against measles, and did not have any chronic disease, died after having been treated for measles infection in the Charité hospital for 5 days. While the child was vaccinated against some diseases, according to the German media, he had not received the recommended MMR. In Germany, the first MMR is usually given between 11 and 14 months and the second is recommended between 15 and 24 months.

Over the past couple of years, discussions about mandatory vaccination had come up in Germany, some child care centers had begun to only accept vaccinated children, and discussions are unlikely to subside now. The question is whether parents, who are already afraid/suspect of the government could be convinced by a mandate - suggestions are welcome how to reach them better.

Meanwhile, our heartfelt thoughts go to the boy's family and everyone whose lives he touched. Another preventable measles death too many.

Thursday, June 12, 2014

A year's worth of measles cases in a week - calling it!

The CDC has just reported the measles cases for 2014 to date: 402 (that is four hundred and two) and 65 cases more than last week. The entire year 2010 only saw 63 cases and in fact, the median number between 2000 and 2010 was 60 per year. How can that be?! Very simple: Every year, measles are imported into the US from abroad. If they are imported into communities with low vaccination coverage, they will spread - usually not very far. Just that this time, measles got imported into a much larger pocket of low vaccination coverage - the Ohio population of Amish. And although these are now vaccinating, there are enough non-immune people around to sustain the outbreak, sustain it big time (I am sure we'll hear a luke warm "that's not an outbreak" from Bob Sears at some point though).

image credit nbcnews

In any case - with 402 cases, the time has come to call it - the last really big outbreak of measles in the US was in 1989 to 1991. Around 55000 people got sick, at least 123 died acutely for a mortality rate of 1 reported death in 451 reported cases. We know that there have been at least 11 SSPE cases due to that outbreak, so the death rate is more like 1 reported death in 414 reported cases. We will reach at least one of these numbers next week. That doesn't mean that someone is going to die next week, statistics don't quite work that way. However, it is, at this point, more likely than not that we'll see a death before the end this year.

I am going to call something else: one someone dies, the anti-vax are going to find something "defective" about the victim, and if it isn't something obvious (like the measles victim in Wales, who reportedly was an underweight adult with a past alcohol problem, so "clearly" not like the vaccine refusers' little snowflakes), they are going to make something up (wrong diet, blabla). No number of deaths will be "enough" for them - sad!

Now is as good a time as ever to check your children's and your own immunization records - 2xMMR is extremely effective in preventing measles and saving lives! Just do it.


Wednesday, June 11, 2014

KISS 11 June 2014: Vaccination protects from severe pertussis

An ongoing outbreak of pertussis in Oregon, spanning from 2010 to 2012 and 624 cases, offered the exceptional opportunity to analyse disease severity. Vaccination history, treatment, demographic, and outcome information was available for almost all (98.7%) of the patients, of which 45% were up to date with currently recommended vaccinations. The paper finds:
Ever-vaccinated cases were significantly less likely to be hospitalized or develop severe illness (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], .1-.8 and aOR, 0.4; 95% CI, .2-.9, respectively). ACIP up-to-date patients stopped coughing significantly more rapidly than unvaccinated patients (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.3-2.2). [my bold]
 Read more here.

Friday, March 14, 2014

Measles Madness

no really - absolutely madness. Do parents in the US not realise how good they have it with measles not circulating and their babies protected? We are 10 weeks into the year, not quite 20% and the CDC reports 71 cases of measles. SEVENTYONE! In 10 weeks! That is as many as in the entire year 2009 and more than in 2010 and 2012.

7 cases in Orange County. 19 in New York - 5 of those hospitalised - that is a quarter. Honestly? What is this? The Middle Ages? The potential for further spread and infection of vulnerable, young, old, sick, immuno-suppressed is horrendous - look at this from the Orange County outbreak:

SEVEN possible exposures in 5 different hospitals/doctors' practises, TWO different schools exposed, with 1 (only - luckily) and 13 kids with philosophical exemptions respectively. What will it take for people to sober up? For uneducated C-rated starlets to shut up and get their child appropriate medical care? Will a child have to die?

It is time for vaccinating parents to speak up. Stop being tolerant of your friends' and neighbours' vaccine denial. Tell them that what they are doing is unacceptable and dangerous. Start asking questions at your daycare centers, schools, doctors' offices - how many of their pupils/patients are unvaccinated out of personal choice. Tell them it is not acceptable and dangerous to be complacent. Speak up.

Monday, March 3, 2014

KISS 3/3/2014 The Dreamboat

Measles love to travel

These days, you can catch them on planes and buses, but also in a very posh location - the Concordia class cruise liner Costa Pacifica has had 7 confirmed cases of measles amongst its crew members, 40 are in quarantine in Italy, where the boat made an unscheduled stop.
Check your vaccination records now, unless you want to bring home a souvenir...


Monday, February 24, 2014

KISS 2/24/14 Media storm about "polio like illness"

I was just about to write about this, since less than 24 hours after the embargo was lifted on a meeting presentation on a handful of children presenting, over the course of a year, with irreversible paralysis of the limbs, and of whom 2 were found to harbour an enterovirus, the first conspiracy theories have already popped up (this is just polio by another name, yada yada).

However, the Skeptical Raptor has done a perfect job - so please read this

Monday, September 24, 2012

Speaking of Potential Outbreaks - New SARS-Like Virus Detected in UK

The British Health Protection Agency warns today:

The Health Protection Agency (HPA) can confirm the diagnosis of one laboratory confirmed case of severe respiratory illness associated with a new type of coronavirus. The patient, who is from the Middle East and recently arrived in the UK, is receiving intensive care treatment in a London hospital.


In recent months, this new human coronavirus was also identified in a patient with acute respiratory illness in Saudi Arabia, who subsequently died.
This comes after the death of a man from the same virus in Saudi Arabia. With the Hajj starting in a month from now, the risk of an outbreak is very real and health personnel is being advised how to deal with patients with respiratory illnesses accordingly.

Update: what the WHO says.

Sunday, September 23, 2012

In Yet Other News, Bears Still Crap in the Woods

and measles prefer the crunchy (unvaccinated) Waldorf/Steiner pupils, especially those who travel. The Dutchess County Department of Health wrote Friday:
The Dutchess County Department of Health announced today a confirmed case of measles in a student at the Mountain Laurel Waldorf School in New Paltz, NY.  Anyone who has visited this school since September 10th or has had any contact with anyone from this school should immediately make sure that they are up to date with their measles vaccinations.  All medical practices and laboratories in the area should be on high alert that there may be a number of other children and families who have been exposed and could be communicable.
We have learned that a number of students at this school were not vaccinated and may become ill and put other children and families at risk for contracting measles.
Mountain Laurel Waldorf School has no alert on their website, but if the student attended the school for several days before being diagnosed, it may be too late anyway. A potential feast for epidemiologists (and bloggers), coming at high risk for the children involved.

On the other hand, Waldorf-minded parents might be delighted. In the Steiner philosophy, measles (and other rashy diseases) help the kids mature:
At the higher emotional and mental levels, negative forces such as greed and selfishness have also been expelled. So a child who has measles is afterwards less self-centered and more openhearted, and often more able to express his or her individuality. The personality becomes rounder and fuller, and more joyful and contented, as a step towards maturity and adulthood.
And don't worry about complications or death, since
Serious complications in childhood illness which produce permanent damage or even death are probably deeply founded in the destiny of the person concerned.
Yes, totally out there, but so is the entire cult (see Melanie Byng's excellent three part series on DC's Improbable Science blog). Steiner Kindies and schools and anthroposophically minded doctors have therefore been doing a great job in keeping measles circulating and racking up impressive case numbers, like the 174 within 3 weeks at a 300 pupil Steiner school in Salzburg in 2008 or the 400+ cases in the practice of one doctor in the 1999/2000 measles outbreak in Coburg Bavaria.

Hopefully, this new outbreak will end with as few cases as the recent outbreak at Ozark Adventist Academy.

Saturday, September 15, 2012

Back to school for unvaccinated pupils after measles in Arkansas

Well, colour me surprised - pleasantly surprised. After two pupils came down with measles in Ozark Adventist Academy (Justthevax passim), the other (8?) unvaccinated pupils had to be sent home. After confirmation of those cases, I already had the headline for a blog about subsequent cases written in my head (it had something to do with bears and woods), but herd immunity and quarantine are miraculous things and apparently, no more cases have been reported (see Arkansas Department of Health), so OAA calls their pupils back to school from Monday:

Measles Update
September 13

The measles outbreak has been contained to the original family. All vaccine-exempt students may return to school September 17 if they have their annual filing for vaccine exemption up to date as required by the Arkansas Department of Health.
I am very pleased (it would even be better if those students kept at home had decided to catch up on their MMRs).



Monday, September 10, 2012

much ado about timing of measles shot

A newspaper snippet is making the round on the interwebz...
Timing of measles vaccine questioned Quebec had a large outbreak of measles in 2011, with more than 700 cases reported. Surprisingly, a number of the teenagers infected had received the recommended two doses of vaccine. A study De Serres did last year showed those who got their first shot at 12 months of age were three times more likely to get infected than those who got their first shot at 15 months of age; his new study put the risk at six times more likely.
We know what will become of this in the claws hands of anti-vaccine vaccine-critical folk. "An outbreak in Quebec where 700 vaccinated teens got measles proves that current vaccination schedule makes teens six times more likely to contract measles". So let's look at the actual study: It analyses measles cases in one high school in Quebec with 1306 students. The index case was a teacher, who imported the measles. This teacher had been vaccinated once. Passive and active surveillance identified 110 students with measles in the following outbreak - I'll bold the notable passage:
Of the 110 student cases identified, 98 were therefore classical (23 laboratory confirmed) and 12 were attenuated (Table 2). Attenuated cases were only found in 2-dose recipients, none of whom had been revaccinated as part of outbreak control.
So out of 1306 pupils, 110 got sick, 12 of them mildly. Mild cases had been vaccinated twice. Have a look at this handy little table:


The overall attack rate among unvaccinated students was 82%,
the overall attack rate among vaccinated students was 4.8%.

Vaccine efficiency was 95.9% for one dose of MMR. It was 95.5% against classical measles and 94.1% against any measles in the 2x vaccinated group. The authors then analysed the 2x vaccinated students to see whether vaccine protection waned with age. That was not the case. Instead they found that for students who were vaccinated at 12 months, vaccine efficiency was 93%, whereas in students who had had their first MMR, it was 97.5%. When you compared those two groups with each other, the relative risk of the 12-months-at-first-vaccination to contract measles compared to the 15 monthers was about 4.35x higher, which was borderline significant (p=0.04). That bit made the news. The fact that measles vaccination offered highly significant protection against measles somehow didn't. Well, now you know.

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Washington State Pertussis Outbreak

There is an outbreak of pertussis in Washington state that has produced a prevalence that hasn't been seen in decades.  In fact, 1942 was the last time this many cases was recorded.  So far there have been 3400 reported cases and the age groups most affected are infants less than one year old and children ages 10-13 years old.  This outbreak, as in California two years ago has demonstrated the reduced duration of efficacy and to some extent, the overall efficacy of diphtheria, tetanus and acellular pertussis toxoid vaccines (DTaP).  This has led to anti-vaxxers exploiting these outbreaks as a demonstration that DTaP vaccines are useless.  Whereas nothing could be farther from the truth.

One particularly notorious anti-vaxxer, Joseph Mercola has used the California outbreak to triumphantly announce that the majority of those infected with pertussis were fully vaccinated.  Well duh, the majority of children are fully vaccinated, but more on that later.  He also cherry-picks an editorial that was published in Pediatrics written by eminent pertussis researcher J.D. Cherry earlier this year.  Mercola only lists the contributing factors for the increase in pertussis prevalence and overestimation of vaccine efficacy but leaves out the contributing factors for underestimating vaccine efficacy and his conclusions.  For instance, Dr. Cherry writes:
Of nasopharyngeal specimens from patients with cough illnesses sent to a commercial laboratory for PCR testing, during the 3-year period 2008–2010, it was found that 14% of the positive specimens were IS1001 positive, indicating B parapertussis infection.(14) In 2010, the positivity rate was 16.5%. These cases would appear as vaccine failures when they are not, as protection against B parapertussis is not expected from current pertussis vaccines.
And:
Vaccine use has resulted in genetic changes in PT, PRN, and FIM in circulating B pertussis strains, and it has been suggested that this has led to increased vaccine failure rates.(22) At the present time, however, there is no evidence to support the hypothesis that evolution is allowing circulating B pertussis strains to escape from vaccine-produced antibodies.(23) If it were to occur, I would expect it to occur first in Denmark, where a PT toxoid vaccine has been in use for ∼15 years; this, as yet apparently has not happened.
Given that Joe Mercola is a salesman, not a researcher and doesn't even know the difference between viruses and bacteria, I'm a bit more inclined to rely upon the expertise of a globally-recognised pertussis researcher who concludes:
To overcome the problem, it needs to be recognized that B pertussis is circulating in all age groups and, therefore, for herd immunity there is a need to universally vaccinate all age groups at frequent intervals.(24) New vaccines should be considered for development that include changes to enhance efficacy but retaining a low reactogenicity profile. This could be DTaP vaccines with multiple additional components and perhaps containing less PT. An alternative would be to develop DTP vaccines with detoxified lipopolysaccharide (the cause of reactions to whole-cell vaccines). It has also been suggested to develop “live vaccines.”(25) There are data available (not presented here), however, that indicate that immunity from DTP vaccines is better than that after infection; therefore, I do not think “live vaccines” are a worthwhile approach. Clearly, additional investments and innovations in pertussis vaccine development are needed to remove pertussis from its position as the leading vaccine preventable disease in the United States.
It is obvious from the California pertussis outbreak in 2010 and the current Washington state as well as the rest of the U.S. currently, that more effective and durable vaccines are needed, certainly not returning to the "good ol' days" of the pre-pertussis vaccine era that begot thousands of infant deaths annually.

Another fallacy that Joe Mercola propagates along with his witless followers is that more vaccinated than unvaccinated have been infected with pertussis.  When one simply looks at the raw data, it appears that way but those claiming more vaccinated than unvaccinated are being infected are either being wilfully dishonest, epidemiologically-ignorant or both.  Let's look at the raw statistics from the CDC as of 20 July 2012 and the Washington Department of Health as of 4 August 2012 (in the format presented by Medical News Today):
  • There have been a total of 3,400 cases reported statewide through week 31, compared to 287 reported cases in 2011 during the same time period. That is a 1085% increase for the same time period.
  • The overall incidence year to date is 50.5 pertussis cases per 100,000 Washington residents with a rate in infants under one year of age of 241.7 per 100,000. Two hundred and fourteen infants under one year of age were reported as having whooping cough and forty-three of them were hospitalized. Of those hospitalized, thirty-five (81%) were very young (three months of age or younger). Adolescents aged 10-13 years old also have a high incidence rate, 238.2 per 100,000, and comprise 24% of the total cases.
  • 75.8% of patients aged from 3 months to 10 years were up-to-date with their childhood diphtheria and tetanus toxoids and acellular pertussis (DTaP) doses.
  • 43.1% of patients aged 11 and 12 years and 77.2% of 13 to 19 year olds were up-to-date with their TDaP booster shots.
  • 93.2% of children aged from 19 to 35 months had received three or more doses, while 81.9% had received four or more in 2010.
  • No deaths caused by whooping cough have been reported.
Using these data, demographic/epidemiological data from Table 2. WA State pertussis cases by age group, 2012 YTD and Washington State School Vaccine Exemption data age stratified attack rates and rate ratios were estimated.  These are crude estimates as the age stratification for pertussis incidence reports and vaccination status overlapped.  The state of Washington reported a statewide 5% vaccine exemption for kindergarten through twelfth grade and this was used to estimate the un/undervaccinated populations.  Attack rates for vaccinated (ARv) and un/der vaccinated (ARn) are as follows:

Ages 5-9:    (ARv) 500/411023 x 100 = 0.12%
                     (ARn) 159/21633 x 100 = 0.73%

Ages 10-13 (ARv) 356/329076 x 100 = 0.11%
                      (ARn) 469/17320 x 100 = 2.7%

Ages 14-18 (ARv) 477/431968 x 100 = 0.11%
                      (ARn) 141/22735 x 100 = 0.62%

As we can see, more un/undervaccinated children have been infected with pertussis than fully vaccinated across all age bins.  This translates to children ages 5-9 un/der vaccinated children are 6 times more likely to become infected with pertussis than fully vaccinated. Children ages 10-13 un/der vaccinated are 25 times more likely to become infected with pertussis than fully vaccinated. And un/der vaccinated children ages 14-18 are 6 times more likely to become infected with pertussis than fully vaccinated.

Two hundred and fourteen infants under the age of one year were infected and 43 hospitalised.  Twenty four percent of those three months to one year were un/undervaccinated.  Of those hospitalised, 35 or 81% were three months or younger.  This is appalling that these children suffered needlessly; we need to do more to protect this vulnerable population and people need to stop buying into anti-vaccine lies.

Sunday, August 5, 2012

Record measles outbreak in UK's Merseyside hits un- and undervaccinated

it is another bad year for measles - following on the European measles record year 2011, which saw, from January to October, 26'000 cases, with 9 deaths and nearly 7300 hospitalisation, measles are still going strong in UK. Various regions are reporting outbreaks, Wales saw over 100 cases in Gwynedd and Porthmadog. Sussex has seen just over 300 cases of measles this year. The area worst hit is Merseyside, a small county in England's North West, with a population just under 1.4 million. After a single measles case was seen in January, case numbers slowly increased to nearly 360 confirmed and over 150 suspected cases by the end of June. Luckily, there has not been a death so far, but 18% of the confirmed cases had to be hospitalised. Contrary to rumours circulating on the internet, the outbreak was not mostly in fully vaccinated children (it is interesting how pertussis and measles myths and facts mix and make for new vaccine-sceptical tales). The HPA team have now published the break down of measles numbers in this outbreak and of the proportion of vaccinated and unvaccinated patients. Indeed, only 12 of the 359 confirmed cases (3.3%) have had two MMRs*. The associated figure is very telling:

Take a good look at this. All orange and dark blue are unvaccinated, all green and purple are just vaccinated once (the UK recommends the first MMR at 13 months, the second at 41, so all green children were vaccinated age-appropriately only once). Only the light blue had 2x MMR. You may have to search for that stripe a bit, it is quite small. This is particularly interesting, since Merseyside has quite a high vaccine uptake, with 96% of children in Liverpool having had their first MMR. Consequently, the characteristics of this outbreak are very different from one in a largely unvaccinated population (like for example the 2008 outbreak in Salzburg, where 202 cases occurred in a month, largely in a 300 pupil Steiner school with 20% vaccine coverage), propagation of the measles is slow, with cases infecting very few other people. While it is a bit discouraging that the high vaccination coverage amongst young children has not stopped the outbreak entirely, it is clear what can be done.

Coverage for the second MMR needs to be increased. Older pupils, students and adults should check their vaccination records to ensure that they really have had two MMRs, children older than 13 and younger than 41 months could get their second MMR early during an outbreak to reduce the risk.

Consider getting your infant (between 6 and 12 months) vaccinated, if s/he is at "higher risk" (daycare) and there is an outbreak in the area - almost a quarter of cases in this outbreak were in the under one-year-olds, who are at particularly high risk of complications.
Anyone who intends to work/volunteer in the medical sector should have had two MMRs. In this, as in nearly every recent outbreak, transmissions within the medical setting and to medical personnel occurred.

Doctors and nurses need to familiarise themselves with the symptoms of measles, so that they can diagnose them early and limit transmission in the medical setting.

And finally, all parents need to think long and hard before taking their child into A&E or their GP's practice whether their child could be contagious, especially if the child has not had their MMRs and could be carrying a potentially fatal disease. Call ahead, get an "out of hours" appointment or home visit, if at all possible.


* Footnote: instead of complaining about vague language in HPA reports and speculating about the number of fully vaccinated children in this outbreak, people could have just emailed/called the HPA. They do have a presence on Facebook, too and are quite happy to answer any question in depth (I have talked to them through FB, email and phone).

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

August is National Immunization Awareness Month

The title says it all, tomorrow, National Immunization Awareness Month starts and Just the Vax will support vaccination awareness by blogging daily on vaccine related issues. Since a daily blog is about 30x the frequency of our usual activity, some posts might just be a "read this today" reference to other people's blogs. So let's warm up with this post by Orac over at Respectful Insolence, who today exposes Joe Mercola's typical anti-vaccine cherry picking and distortion of data:

Joe Mercola attacks vaccinations again. Film at 11.

and as a reminder why immunization awareness is really important - pertussis soars in the UK with 5 dead babies this year to date:

Whooping cough outbreak spreads to very young babies




Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Measles go to University

As British kids, not vaccinated in the 90ies due to the MMR media hysteria grow up, measles catches up with them - as seen yesterday:

 

Lovely Dr. S said that while he was happy to actually see a case of measles (young doctor in the post-vaccine era that he is), people would tend to forget that measles can be a very dangerous disease. And indeed, in Merseyside, where they have had over 200 cases of measles this year, 25% of over 15 year old patients (15 of 61) were hospitalised, the highest rate of all age groups (<1s: 24%, 1-5s: 20%, 5-9s: 4% 10-14s: 8%).

Apparently, University Health Service are also seeing lots of mumps and chicken pox, several cases of rubella and whooping cough. The nurse I saw was very impressed with the recent case of whooping cough - the first she had ever heard. She said she had heard a lot of coughs in her career, but the second she heard this one, she knew it as pertussis and "really something else" (in the sense of something much more severe that a normal cough). 

So here is a public service announcement to students in the UK and elsewhere where Universities may not check your vaccination record:

Make sure you are immune against measles, mumps, rubella, chicken pox, whooping cough and meningitis. 

If you don't have one of these, contact your GP, they should have your shots on file. It is your responsibility now.

You can still get the vaccines, if you didn't as a child. Talk to your GP - they'll be delighted to get you covered before you walk into their surgery with measles...

Saturday, May 19, 2012

And Everything Stops for a Second...

The daily delusions, presented with the arrogance of ignorance and a degree from Google U, the smugness of those whose children are protected by herd immunity, afforded by the grace of having been born in a time when a lot of diseases are preventable by vaccines, are so tiresome to counter.

"No, by the time it is properly diagnosed, pertussis can not really be treated."
"No, SIDS did not disappear from Japan when the raised vaccination age to 2 years and stopped whole cell pertussis vaccination, instead, pertussis cases and fatalities soared."
"No, unvaccinated kids do not have the better immune systems."

The past week has been particularly bad, with media outlets thoughtlessly spewing anti-vaccine dreck (hat tip to Seth Mnookin). Despite State after State reporting pertussis outbreaks or even epidemics, every day there was a chance to whack-a-mole-of-the-day... oh, there is another.

So tedious.

And then, everything stops for a second:

Francesca Marie McNally

February 24, 2012 - May 17, 2012
Resided in Franklin, MI

FRANCESCA MARIE McNALLY, May 17, 2012, of complications from Pertussis. Age 3 months.

Most precious angel of Sean and Veronica. Dearest younger sister of, and inspiration to, Duke and Stephen. Cherished granddaughter of Thomas and Debra McNally and Stephen and Frances Valentine. Great-granddaughter of Phyllis Lanesey, Mary Jane McNally, and the late Robert McNally, George Holt, Frank Lanesey, Joseph and Joan Craig, and Bernice and Stephen Valentine. Goddaughter of Tyler Wesorick and Erin Goward. Also survived by eight cousins and many aunts and uncles.

Memorial Mass Wednesday 11 a.m. at Shrine Chapel of Our Lady of Orchard Lake, 3535 Indian Trail, Orchard Lake. Visitation at church begins at 10 a.m.

In lieu of flowers family suggests memorials to C.S. Mott Children's Hospital, 301 E. Liberty, Suite 400, Ann Arbor, MI 48104. A.J. Desmond & Sons, 248-362-2500. 



My heart goes out to the McNally family. No one should have to bury a child. Let's whack another mole and save a life or three...

Saturday, April 2, 2011

2008: Measles in Dr. Bob Sears' Waiting Room

I thought this to be a timely topic given the current measles outbreak that is occurring in a very undervaccinated population in Minnesota.  Thus far, there are 14 cases in Hennepin County, 13 of which are epidemiologically-linked in the Somali population there.  This situation highlights the infectiousness of measles and how easily it can be spread to immunologically-naive people, even with overall high vaccination rates.  Uptake of MMR is estimated to be greater than 95% in 70% of U.S. schools, however, private schools are not surveyed and 12 states were below 95% with some as low as 81%.  There is also geographical clustering of "like-minded" people in communities that leave large numbers of susceptible children at risk for measles.  Additionally, lists of "vaccine-friendly" doctors, like this one provided by Dr. Bob can be geographically-linked to large numbers of school exemptions for vaccines.

This is what can, has and will happen again with the current recommendations that these "vaccine-friendly" doctors make:  In 2008, an intentionally unvaccinated 7 year old child came back to the states from a visit to Switzerland with his parents.
In January 2008, measles was identified in an unvaccinated boy from San Diego, California, who had recently traveled to Europe with his family. After his case was confirmed, an outbreak investigation and response were initiated by local and state health departments in coordination with CDC, using standard measles surveillance case definitions and classifications.* This report summarizes the preliminary results of that investigation, which has identified 11 additional cases of measles in unvaccinated children in San Diego that are linked epidemiologically to the index case and include two generations of secondary transmission. Recommendations for preventing further measles transmission from importations in this and other U.S. settings include reminding health-care providers to 1) consider a diagnosis of measles in ill persons who have traveled overseas, 2) use appropriate infection-control practices to prevent transmission in health-care settings, and 3) maintain high coverage with measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine among children.

The index patient was an unvaccinated boy aged 7 years who had visited Switzerland with his family, returning to the United States on January 13, 2008. He had fever and sore throat on January 21, followed by cough, coryza, and conjunctivitis. On January 24, he attended school. On January 25, the date of his rash onset, he visited the offices of his family physician and his pediatrician. A diagnosis of scarlet fever was ruled out on the basis of a negative rapid test for streptococcus. When the boy's condition became worse on January 26, he visited a children's hospital inpatient laboratory, where blood specimens were collected for measles antibody testing; later that day, he was taken to the same hospital's emergency department because of high fever 104°F (40°C) and generalized rash. No isolation precautions were instituted at the doctors' offices or hospital facilities.

The boy's measles immunoglobulin M (IgM) positive laboratory test result was reported to the county health department on February 1, 2008. During January 31--February 19, a total of 11 additional measles cases in unvaccinated infants and children aged 10 months--9 years were identified. These 11 cases included both of the index patient's siblings (rash onset: February 3), five children in his school (rash onset: January 31--February 17), and four additional children (rash onset: February 6--10) who had been in the pediatrician's office on January 25 at the same time as the index patient. Among these latter four patients, three were infants aged less than 12 months. One of the three infants was hospitalized for 2 days for dehydration; another infant traveled by airplane to Hawaii on February 9 while infectious.
Just the Vax reported earlier that the index case (the intentionally unvaccinated boy travelling from Switzerland) was Dr. Bob Sears' patient.   But there is now more.  That boy, the index case, infected four other children in the waiting room of his paediatrician's office.  The office of Dr. Bob Sears.  I suspected this was the case and it was confirmed when Dr. Bob appeared on the Dr. Oz Show, "What Causes Autism" with Dr. Ari Brown who stated:
"...And as an example, there was a 2008 measles outbreak in San Diego where an unvaccinated child developed measles, was in the doctor's waiting room where other unvaccinated children then got measles.  In fact one of those children was too young to be vaccinated and contracted measles and ended up in the hospital.  And I think those were actually Dr. Bob's patients."
Dr. Bob did not deny this.

In reality however, there were three infants and one toddler who contracted measles in his waiting room.  Here is the story of the one who ended up in the hospital:
If you hear "106 degrees" you probably think "heat wave," not a baby’s temperature. But for Megan Campbell’s 10-month-old son, a life-threatening bout of measles caused fevers spiking to 106 degrees and sent him to the hospital.

"After picking our son up at child care because he had a fever," says Megan, "we went straight to our pediatrician who said our baby had a virus. Two days later, his fever hit 104 degrees and a rash appeared on his head."

The rash quickly crept down to his arms and chest. Megan and husband Chris turned to the Internet. Finding pictures of measles that looked like their son’s rash, they rushed him to the local children’s hospital.

"No one there had seen or tested for measles for about 17 years," says Megan. "And no one expected it in the year 2008 in the United States. The next day, an infectious disease specialist confirmed measles.

"We spent 3 days in the hospital fearing we might lose our baby boy. He couldn’t drink or eat, so he was on an IV, and for a while he seemed to be wasting away. When he began to be able to drink again we got to take him home. But the doctors told us to expect the disease to continue to run its course, including high fever—which did spike as high as 106 degrees. We spent a week waking at all hours to stay on schedule with fever reducing medications and soothing him with damp wash cloths. Also, as instructed, we watched closely for signs of lethargy or non-responsiveness. If we’d seen that, we’d have gone back to the hospital immediately."

Thankfully, the baby recovered fully.

Megan now knows that her son was exposed to measles during his 10-month check-up, when another mother brought her ill son into the pediatrician’s waiting room. An investigation found that the boy and his siblings had gotten measles overseas and brought it back to the United States. They had not been vaccinated.

"People who choose not to vaccinate their children actually make a choice for other children and put them at risk," Megan explains. "At 10 months, my son was too young to get measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine. But when he was 12 months old, we got him the vaccine—even though he wasn’t susceptible to measles anymore. This way, he won’t suffer from mumps or rubella, or spread them to anyone else."

This story is one of many recounted in the fact sheets series, Diseases & the Vaccines that Prevent Them.
For other true stories, see Vaccines: Unprotected Stories.
I wonder if Dr. Bob and his merry band of "disease-friendly doctors" provide information to their vaccine-refusal clients shown in the links above, let alone tell parents of his own practice's patient who was infected while waiting for his well check-up.  Unfortunately, this isn't all to that story.  It appears as though Dr. Bob or one of his practice partners doesn't even know what measles looks like:
First Generation (1 Case Spread to 8)
On January 13, 2008, the 7-year-old male index patient returned from Switzerland, asymptomatic but incubating measles. He transmitted infection to his 9-year-old unvaccinated sister and 3-year-old unvaccinated brother. On January 24, 2008, after 2 days of fever and conjunctivitis, the index patient attended charter school A. Forty-one of the 377 students (11%) at charter school A were unvaccinated for measles because of personal beliefs, and 2 children became infected. The next day, the index patient developed a rash and was taken to an internist who diagnosed an upper-respiratory infection and prescribed amoxicillin. No airborne-infection isolation precautions were taken; adults in the waiting room were exposed, but none of them became infected. Later the same day, the index patient was taken to pediatric clinic A, where scarlet fever was diagnosed; again, amoxicillin was prescribed. No respiratory precautions were taken, 6 children were exposed, 5 were unvaccinated, and 4 were infected (3 infants too young for vaccination and a 2-year-old whose parents had intentionally delayed measles vaccination). The next day, after telephone consultation with a pediatrician, the child was taken for measles serology testing. No respiratory precautions were taken in the clinical laboratory, and no records were kept to permit identification of potentially exposed persons. With worsening fever, the index patient was taken to a children’s hospital emergency department, where measles was clinically diagnosed. The patient was triaged, placed in a negative-airflow waiting room, and then examined in a room with curtain-separated beds and no negative airflow, all without wearing a mask. Thirteen children were potentially exposed, and 5 were unvaccinated infants; none of them were infected.
Emphasis added.  A disease-friendly physician, such as Dr. Bob should know what measles looks like, and certainly be able to distinguish it from Scarlet Fever; there are tests for both.  Even after this incident, Dr. Bob still recommends delaying MMR until 4 years old and recommends only a single dose.  The parents of the index case are certainly not without fault as they intentionally left their child unvaccinated for measles, at the very least, travelled to an area with a relatively high prevalence of measles, in fact during that time, a record number of measles cases since mandatory reporting began in 1999 and then don't even know what measles looks like themselves, eventually exposing hundreds of people.  The eventual cost of Dr. Bob's (or practice partner's) failure to properly inform parents, identify measles in his patient and the parents narcissistic decision to leave their child unvaccinated and traipse him about, was $124 517.00 in order to prevent third generation transmission.  Cost to parents who refused post-exposure prophylaxis vaccination for their children and were placed in voluntary quarantine was ~$19 375.00.  Cost  to parents whose children were too young to be vaccinated and placed in voluntary quarantine was ~$37 200.00.

One would think this would be a humbling and educational experience for someone like Dr. Bob, but it wasn't.  In his 2008 blog about the San Diego measles outbreak, he callously dismissed the measles outbreak:
The recent measles outbreak (if you can call it that) in San Diego last month, in which twelve children came down with the illness after an unvaccinated family brought the disease back with them from Switzerland, raises awareness of a growing trend among families to decline certain vaccines.
Perhaps Dr. Bob could benefit from EpiRen's Epidemiology Night School where he discusses what constitutes an outbreak for Dr. Bob's pal Dr. Jay Gordon.
WHAT IS AN OUTBREAK?
Traditionally, an outbreak has been defined as "one case over the expected rate (or number) of cases for a given location in a period of time." In Minnesota, they have seen 22 cases over the last 14 years (22/14=1.6 cases per year in all Minnesota). Rounding up, we can say that two cases per year is what is expected. Three cases in 2011 would mean an outbreak. What was that in 2010, you ask? Well, 19 cases in 13 years give us a rate of 1.5 cases per year. It would also be an outbreak situation, especially if the three cases were epidemiologically linked. That information is not yet available from the MDH, but it will be interesting to read later on.
Let's look at the numbers; in 2005, the whole state of California had 4 cases, in 2006, California had 6 cases, in 2007, 5 total cases, in 2008, 14 cases, 12 of which were epidemiologically linked to the included index case and 4 cases occurred right in Dr. Bob's office.  The whole county of San Diego had not had a single measles outbreak since 1991.  All of California went back down to 9 total cases in 2009.  That was an outbreak as defined by epidemiology.  Unless Dr. Bob would like to claim that an average of 3 or 4 cases of measles occurs in his waiting room on an annual basis.  This is what he also callously claims regarding the ten month old infant infected in his waiting room and ended up in the hospital:
I believe our nation can tolerate a certain percentage of unvaccinated children without risking the overall public health in any significant way. Since most children are vaccinated, our nation has enough “herd immunity” to contain outbreaks like this one.
However, in the San Diego case, some infants caught measles before they were old enough to even be vaccinated. Fortunately, all cases passed without complications, as is usually the case with measles.
I beg to differ that the Campbell's son, hospitalised for 3 days and then several more days at home with constant monitoring is "uncomplicated".   Perhaps he hopes that no one will remember the children infected during this outbreak should any develop SSPE in the next few years.   Dr. Bob also doesn't get herd immunity, no need for scare quotes, herd immunity is real and assumes equal distribution of susceptibility to work.  He has helped to create the clustering effect which allowed foreign measles strains to spread until contact tracing and quarantining of exposed individuals was implemented by public health officials.  But that is just fine according to Dr. Bob:
Public health officials will be there to help clean up the mess that disease-friendly doctors like Dr. Bob create, instead of promoting prevention.  I am fully supportive of parents' right to choose vaccination schedules, however, choices need to be more responsible and "vaccine-friendly" doctors need to stop disseminating false information and validating poor vaccine choices.  To use the words of anti-vaxx spokesperson, Jenny McCarthy:
I do believe sadly it's going to take some diseases coming back to realize that we need to change and develop vaccines that are safe. If the vaccine companies are not listening to us, it's their f___ing fault that the diseases are coming back. They're making a product that's s___. If you give us a safe vaccine, we'll use it. It shouldn't be polio versus autism.
Except it isn't going to work out the way she thinks when some physicians and parents wilfully contribute to large gaps in herd immunity.  When a child does die or become permanently injured from measles, or a child is born with congenital rubella syndrome because the mother sat in a waiting room of someone like Dr. Bob Sears, or wild-type polio is ever diagnosed in the Western Hemisphere again, there will be a backlash.  Sears, Gordon and all of the other disease-friendly doctors won't get to re-define nomenclature and won't get to heartlessly disregard outcomes.

The next time you are looking for a measles party, or chicken pox, rubella, Hib, pertussis or mumps, no need to organise it with your local mummy forum, just stop by Dr. Sears' office or one of his disease-friendly associates offices on his list.  But you may want to go see a more competent physician if you actually want a proper diagnosis after the fact.  And even better, one who makes house-calls.



EDITED BY Catherina ON 6/6/2011 to add a comment from Dr. Bob made on his Facebook group:



Seems he lucked out there...

Friday, July 3, 2009

Measles in Brooklyn

I don't know why they waited so long with the health alert, but here it is:

http://tinyurl.com/nnel9k

A measles alert was issued yesterday by the city's Health Department after an outbreak of 11 confirmed cases and one suspected case, all in the Williamsburg and Borough Park sections of Brooklyn.

The 12 cases identified over the past two months involve 10 children, between the ages of 8 months and 4 years, and two adults, according to the Health Department.

The alert sent to physicians and other health-care providers states that "most of the cases have had a close contact with each other" and that "in one instance, transmission may have occurred in a physician's waiting room." None of the 12 had been vaccinated.

The cases are still under investigation and officials were sketchy on details.

/...snip.../

Dr. Jane Zucker, an assistant health commissioner with the bureau of immunization, acknowledged that some parents have expressed concern about the measles vaccine and want to wait until their children are 3 or 4 years old. But she cautioned against such delays.

The advisory urges doctors to be alert for measles symptoms and immediately report clinically suspect cases to the department.


My bold: this is why I think that delaying MMR until the age of 3 or 4 is dangerous.

Note that once again measles appear to have spread in a doctor's waiting room - if I was a pediatrician, unvaccinated patients would make me nervous, too (see my earlier blog on SSPE in children who caught measles as babies in their pediatrician's waiting room - that fate is still looming over the children in Brooklyn).